The Massive Selloff Continues. USDA Confirms Large Old Crop Stocks, But Smaller New Crop Stocks On The Horizon.
The USDA released its June crop report on Tuesday and confirmed large old crop stocks, but significantly less new crop stocks. In the corn market, the USDA increased old crop corn exports by 75 M bu up to 2.3 B bu for old crop. We have seen a consistent amount corn being exported out of the Gulf each week, and these numbers have remained higher than normal for quite some time. When the dust settled, old crop corn ending stocks were reduced by 80 M bu down to 2.102 B bu. On new crop corn, the USDA reduced feed usage by 25 M bu down to 5.35 B bu. The end result is a corn carryout for next year at 1.577 B bu. As you can see, the corn carryout is substantially less next year than the current year. The market is concerned about this sharp reduction in carryout for next year. However, the crop is off to a wonderful start, the weather is non threatening at the moment, and there is a real probability that the old crop carryover could grow in size if the weather holds.
On beans, the crush margins has been very good as of late, mainly supported by the decent price of bean meal. The USDA increased bean crush on old crop by 25 M bu up to 2.015 B bu. When the dust settled, old crop bean ending stocks dropped 25 M bu down to 505 M bu. In new crop beans, the USDA is using 89 M acres and a yield of 48.5 bpa. They pegged next year’s bean ending stocks at 385 M bu, significantly tighter than old crop. Just like corn, the old crop supplies remain plentiful while the new crop supplies are considerably less.
In the wheat market, the USDA made a small adjustment to old crop exports, and cut them by 10 M bu down to 900 M bu. This pushed old crop ending stocks up to 1.08 B bu. On new crop, they increased exports by 25 M bu to 950 M bu and this took ending stocks down to 946 M bu. Both crop years have ending stocks close to 1 B bu and this leaves the market relatively comfortable. Although true, there are concerns of lower yields around the world due to drought conditions in the EU, Black Sea, and in Canada. Even though the US’s supplies remain decent, the rest of the world does not have the same luxury.
The market made a high on the Tuesday after Memorial Day and since then, it has been significantly pounded lower like I have never seen before. All grains, no matter the significant tightness for next year, have all been pushed lower to levels that no one ever thought possible. Many in the grain trade are shocked by this massive lower movement of grain futures since Memorial Day, and still cannot believe it has happened. The fundamentals for next year clearly do not justify such a move, and we still have at least a 60 day period where the weather can easily change the final outcome on yields. Since Memorial Day, Dec ’18 corn has dropped 46 cents, Nov ’18 beans have dropped a whopping $1.25, and July ’18 wheat has dropped 59 cents. I have never witnessed anything like this in my 25 years in this business. The funds had a decent size long position across the board and have been blown out of their entire long position, and now are likely short. This is a massive amount of grain that has been sold in the last 2 weeks, adding more and more selling pressure to the market.
Additionally, the charts look terrible. We have systematically blown through at least 3 different support levels on the way down, going through them like nothing was there. What is concerning, is that we have not stopped going down yet! As I look at each chart, we have not bounced off of any support level yet. We now have new crop cash corn at Readfield at $3.42, new crop beans at $8.60, and new wheat at $4.40. New beans into Readfield traded $9.91 just a few days ago! This is something for the record books. For all of you who took our advice and sold new crop bushels earlier in the year, congratulations. You have saved your farm. For those of you who were bullish and decided to stick your head in the sand over the last 3 weeks while trying to plant your crop, and now don’t have enough new bushels sold, we have some serious work to do. Grain futures will bounce. The questions is when, and from what level.
Why did this sell-off happen? Let’s go over the list:
- Although late, the entire corn and bean crop was planted in the Corn Belt.
- Planting conditions were good, and plant populations are great. This will push yields higher.
- So far, we have had adequate rain in the majority of the Corn Belt.
- Heat units are accumulating nicely, and the heat is allowing the crops to catch up.
- Soybeans were planted much earlier than normal, and final yields should be higher than normal if the weather holds.
- The funds have sold massive amounts of their spec positions from one of significant length to now being short. All of this selling pushed futures lower each day.
- The market is incredibly nervous about the potential tariffs between the US and China, Canada, and Mexico. The Trump Administration will make a decision today, June 15th, whether to enact its first tariffs with China on $50 B worth of goods. The funds and specs do not want to trade grain with this outside influence, so they got out over the last 2 weeks.
- NAFTA – It looks like an agreement will not be made with Mexico and Canada.
- North Korea – Will this agreement hold? Are they playing us?
- The lack of China buying US beans over the last 2 months. They have virtually stopped buying our beans. If the tariffs get enacted today, the Chinese will do everything not to buy our beans. This is the real reason beans have fallen by $1.25 in the last 2 weeks. The bean market is in real trouble if the Chinese don’t buy our beans.
For those of you who now find themselves in a very uncomfortable position, the time is to be truthful with yourself, be honest, and allow us to help you work through this. We want to help and can work with you to put a plan in place to dig yourself out of this hole. This is not a time to sit back and be complacent. Your farm and livelihood could easily be at stake. Our team can easily sit down and help you put a marketing plan together to help salvage your business.
What Are The Charts Telling Us?
Here are the support and resistance levels for cash and new crop grains. These are all futures levels as traded at Chicago:
Cash Corn – July 18 Corn Futures – Support at $3.50, Resistance at $3.62, Place Targets at $3.60
New Corn – Dec 18 Corn Futures – Support at $3.79, Resistance at $3.87, Place Targets at $3.85
Cash Beans – July 18 Bean Futures – Support at $9.00, Resistance at $9.26, Place Targets at $9.15
New Beans – Nov 18 Bean Futures – Support at $9.23, Resistance at $9.39, Place Targets at $9.35
New Wheat – July 18 Wheat Futures – Support at $4.86, Resistance at $5.03, Place Targets at $4.97
To see where grain futures are currently trading, please click here.
Targets Produce Success and Protection For Your Farm
Before long, weather markets will push the market around like a yoyo and produce unprecedented volatility. However, volatility can be your friend if you have a solid marketing plan and know how much and at what price you feel comfortable selling when the right opportunities present themselves. If you are not working with one of our grain originators today, please give us a call. We will gladly sit down with you to create a plan and help you protect your farm. For a list of our grain originators and the one closest to you, please click here. These types of volatile markets are a grain marketer’s dream. The volatility present selling opportunities that are very short lived. For the disciplined marketer, who knows exactly what commodity he needs to sell and at what level, this is a perfect scenario. You simply place target orders in our system and at 3 am in the morning next Thursday while China makes an announcement when we are all sleeping, the markets ramps up, hits your target, locks in your contract price, all automatically while you are in bed. How fantastic is that! I encourage all of you to start using our online target system. Its free, easy, and will protect your farm. Please click here for more information.
New Arrive Delayed Price Rates have Been Reduced
We have reduced our Delayed Price rates for new arrive corn and beans into Readfield and Center Valley. These rates are for new arrive bushels only, and the rate will be in effect until Oct 1st 2018 when new crop storage rates will go into effect. The new Delayed Price rate is now 60 days FREE, and then 3 cents flat per month thereafter.
Condo Space For Sale (aka Long Term Storage Agreement)
The co-op does have 3,000 bu of condo space to sell. If interested, you can find more information on our web site, or click here. Please call the number listed and talk to Todd. He will inform you of all the details and who is selling their Condo Space. In the future, this site on our web page will be updated with buyers and sellers of Condo space for our co-op. If you own Condo space and would like to sell, or if you would like to buy Condo space, please let us know and we can post your information for you. We want to make this a useful site to trade Condo Space.
As always, if I can help you with anything, please call me at the grain office in Readfield at 920-667-4955, ext 2 or send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.