We rang in
the new year with the lowest crude oil values since August of 2017. To our surprise, those values remain the
lowest seen this quarter. Slow and
steady, just like a turtle crude oil managed to sneak in a 23% gain in values
over the past three months. Diesel and
Gasoline followed crude oils pattern, just like the good soldiers that they
are. Both increasing roughly 25%,
gasoline gaining a bit more than diesel.
So, why the
drastic change and such volatility in the past three months?
this out we need to examine the factors that cause market movement. So, let’s look a little closer at supply/demand
and the economy.
past 18 months OPEC has managed to make headlines with their continued threats
of production cuts. There has been quite
a bit of skepticism regarding the actual follow through of these cuts. In the past, greed has taken over and most of
the nations that did agree to cut production have failed miserably. Over the past 6-9 months however, OPEC and
non-OPEC countries have steadily decreased their production and have managed to
cut 1.2 million bpd. This 3% total cut
in oil production has managed to drive values up almost 25%. Though the US continues to ramp up its production,
these imports, or lack thereof are killing us.
Every so often, the President will take to twitter and demand that OPEC
discontinue their cuts. This is usually enough
to bring crude oil values down a buck or so, but unfortunately it seems to be
short lived as the market rebounds a day or two later.
As much as
President Trump tries to help with his tweets, the new jobs created as well as
the overall confidence in the US economy that have become the norm under his
leadership are only helping push crude oil values up. US unemployment is at an all-time low of
3.8%. We have watched the DOW’s steady
incline over the past few years; going up over 30 points in the past three
months. The Federal Reserve has also
taken advantage of the stronger economy outlook, raising interest rates several
times in the past year; from 1.7% to 2.5%- 1/4% of this growth occurring within
the last four months. Globally, things
are not as strong; and this may be our only saving grace. Considered to be one of the foremost developing
nation, China, was projected to have extraordinary growth throughout 2019/2020. Well,
they are a mess! Their projected growth
figures have been cut three times this year, with more to come.
I honestly don’t know that we will see a lot of change over the next three months. But, as the OPEC cut agreements get closer to their maturity dates, I think we may see some excitement.
Recent regulations may change how
some U.S. producers weigh down their silage covers. Yet, the benefits to
properly covering silage bunkers or piles continue to provide returns.
“The additional time and expense to
comply with new waste tire regulations may cause producers to question the need
for covering piles at all,” notes Renato Schmidt, Ph.D., Technical Services –
Silage, Lallemand Animal Nutrition. “There is absolutely no question that
effectively covering piles saves money by preserving important nutrients in the
silage, reducing dry matter (DM) losses and maintaining the hygienic quality of
the feed. The effort to cover and seal silage piles is a vital part of the
silage management program.”
Covering piles helps create the
anaerobic environment required for the ensiling fermentation on the most
critical portion in terms of porosity — the surface. As a result, the quality
of the fermentation process is improved compared to uncovered piles. During
storage, well-maintained plastic covers help prevent oxygen ingress, which can
For example, sealing and covering a
40-foot by 100-foot bunker returns approximately $2,000 in improved silage DM
recovery when filled with corn silage. Plus, feeding spoiled silage from an
uncovered silo can reduce feed intake and digestibility and potentially lead to
metabolic and reproductive issues in the herd.
A combination of high-quality
plastic and adequate weighting helps prevent losses. Use plastic that is at
least five millimeters thick and dual layer — black inner and white outer — to
resist deterioration. Also consider using plastic film with an increased oxygen
barrier, Dr. Schmidt advises.
Weighting the plastic down prevents
air from seeping underneath the covering. Full-casing waste tires have been the
standard for anchoring bunk silo covers for years, but they are heavy to move
and bulky to store. Standing water in a full-casing tire can be a breeding
ground for mosquitoes. With the increasing concern around West Nile virus (WNV)
— and the new state regulations prohibiting full tires — producers may be
searching for new options, such as:
Modifying tires by leaving tires on the rims, removing tire sidewalls, drilling holes in the tire sidewalls or cutting tires in half
Covering tires with plastic to reduce standing water
Treating tires with a mosquito larvicide, which requires a certified pesticide applicator
Replacing tires with sidewall disks
Using heavy equipment tire beads
Finding alternatives to tires, such as gravel or sand bags
Dr. Schmidt advises producers to
choose an option that maintain the integrity of the plastic. Tears or holes
reduce the effectiveness of the covering and allow oxygen into the pile.
“Covering and sealing silage bunkers makes economic sense,” Dr. Schmidt says. “There are options for producers looking for alternative ways to weigh down covers. Don’t drop a best practice that pencils out in the long run.”
reported net income of $248.8 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2019 and
$596.3 million for the first six months of fiscal 2019.
strong performance in the second quarter reflects our hard work at serving our
owners and other customers better. We’ve refocused on serving our customers and
improving our operations, and that has shown positive results in our financials
for the first half of fiscal 2019,” said Jay Debertin, CHS president and
chief executive officer. “Our performance also reflects the benefit of a
diverse platform across business units that serves our cooperative and
Grain powers American agriculture. During Stand-Up for Grain Safety Week, March 25 through 29, we want to remind everyone working on farms and in grain-handling facilities to respect and understand the risks associated with working with grain.
“It’s important to continue to work with the industry, our
employees and our farmer-owners on the hazards in the grain industry, while
stressing safe practices and controls to ensure their safety,” says Matt
Surdick, manager, Country Operations Environment, Health and Safety, CHS.
The USDA released its March crop report last Friday which
turned out to be mostly anticipated by the market, and it did not send shock
waves through the industry. There was a
slight surprise in corn as ending stocks did rise more than expected. Let’s look at the details.
In the corn market, the USDA did reduce corn used in the
production of ethanol by 25 M bu down to 5.55 B bu. The ethanol industry has been plagued with
very slim margins over the last 6 months and this has caused the industry to
slow their grind. The USDA also reduced
corn exports by 75 M bu down to 2.375 B bu.
The big crop of corn being grown in Brazil and Argentina today is
cheaper than the corn that can be purchased from the US. China is buying their corn and not ours, and
this is weighing on exports. When the
dust settled, corn ending stocks for this year grew by 100 M bu from 1.735 B bu
to 1.835 B bu. This change was not
expected by the market and this helped to press the market lower after the
On beans, the USDA made small tweaks to the supply and
demand table. The only change was an
increase in bean crush by 10 M bu to 2.1 B bu.
Bean crush margins have been and continue to be stronger than normal
this year. This helps explain why crush
rates continue to be strong. Amazingly,
the USDA made no adjustment to bean exports at 1.875 B bu. Comparing last year to this year, the Chinese
have purchased 639 M bu less
beans this year due to the tariff war.
Yet, when you compare the bean exports from last year of 2.129 B bu to
the 1.875 B bu this year, this is only a reduction of 254 M bu. What about the other 385 M bu? Maybe the Chinese will come and buy more
beans, but the window of opportunity is quickly slamming shut. It might be possible for another 85 M bu to
be sold. If this happens, the end result
of 300 M bu beans from less exports this year will push the final bean export
number down to 1.575 M bu and this same 300 M bu will fall right into the
ending stock number, and raising it to 1.2 B bu. This is likely where the ending stock number
will grow to and this helps explain why the market did not rally on Friday even
though the ending stock number posted was actually reduced by 10 M bu down to
900 M bu. The market simply does not
believe the current export number.
We have heard time and time and time again that the Chinese
will come and buy massive amounts of beans from the US. Obviously, the Trump administration and the
Chinese government are continuing to work on a new trade deal. Trump decided not to increase the tariffs on
$200 B of Chinese products from 10% to 25% on March 1st when no
agreement was made. He did not want to
disrupt the momentum in the current negotiations. The best guess today is that a new deal
between the US and China will not occur until sometime in April. In the mean-time, traders are tired of taking
positions in anticipation of these Chinese purchases until they actually
happen. They are tired of being hood
winked and loosing money when the Chinese purchases don’t develop. Initially, the bean market popped up at every
single new tweet or new headline. Today,
the market is ignoring these false signals and is only rallying when actual
bean sales are published. As of late,
the bean market could not even do this as the amount of beans actually
purchased are only a fraction of what was promised several weeks ago.
In addition to the loss of bean sales to China, there are
two other factors that are pressing the market as of late. The first is much improving weather in South
America. The second is a massive short
position taken in the corn and bean markets by the funds. Let’s examine these issues.
Northern areas of Brazil had been very dry going back 2
months ago. Since that time, Brazil’s
weather has stabilized, and northern Brazil has received nice rains over the
last few weeks. Argentina did suffer
from excessive water in the early growing season, but less rains have fallen as
of late. The end result is that both the
corn and bean production in both Argentina and Brazil have stabilized and now are
increasing in volume. Looking at total
South American bean production, the current crop is pegged at 181.6 MMT (6.67 B
bu) as compared to 171.2 MMT (6.29 B bu) last year. As you can see, bean production is
substantially higher this year, and bean shipped from Brazil or Argentina to
China are considerably cheaper than the bean originated from the US going to
China. Also, the US produced 4.412 B bu
of beans last year compared to their 6.29 B bu of beans. South America is now the leading producer of soybeans
and helps explain why our bean ending stocks have exploded higher in recent
Finally, the funds have a massive short position now in all grains. In corn, the current estimate is that managed money is short approximately 200,000 contracts. In beans, they are short approximately 75,000 contracts. These are huge short positions and help explain why the market has been pressed significantly lower over the last 2 weeks. The funds are nearing their record short position levels, so their continued selling will likely be limited. However, anything is possible. At some point, these funds will likely cover (buy back) their short positions due to a planting scare are a weather problem in the April – June timeframe. Now is the time for all of you to put firm targets into our system to sell when the market pops back. Additionally, the USDA will release their Perspective Planting report on March 29th. This report will finalize the corn and bean acres for this growing season. This report historically produces a very volatile market reaction and pushes the market based on the new production data. This could be an opportunity for the funds to cover some of their short positions if acreage comes in significantly different than expectations. I seriously recommend that all of you have target orders in place ahead of this report. Please click here to see which grain originator on our staff can help you create a unique marketing plan for your farm, and help you place target orders in our online system. I offer further explanation below.
New Crop Average Price Contracts –
Sign Up Today
We are now enrolling bushels into our new crop Average Price
Contract which is for new crop grain that will be delivered during Oct / Nov
’19 into our grain facilities. This is a
cash contract and will use a 10-week period to average the price. The timing of the new crop contract will be
May 1st through July 3rd. We will simply
average the closing prices each Wednesday during these periods, pricing 1/10 of
your contracted bushels each week during the period. At the end of the period, we will simply
average the prices together. There is no
minimum quantity and the best part of these contracts are that they are FREE.
There are no fees associated with these averaging contracts.
The dates associated with the new crop pricing period of May 1st to July 3rd is normally a very good time to sell new crop grain because the market is dealing with planting problems and then dealing with dry weather problems somewhere in the Corn Belt. When problems surface, the market puts more risk premium in the futures, and you will be participating in the market to capture these premiums. If there are no problems, the market usually drifts lower after the July 4th holiday, making the timing an excellent part of this new crop average contract. These contracts are simple, easy to understand, and they work. These contracts are a very good tool for you to use and they allow the co-op to sell fall trains ahead of the busy harvest period. Every farmer should put a decent amount of grain into these contracts to help protect your farm. For more information on these exciting new contracts, pleaseclick here.
Have You Sold New Beans Yet? Make Values Even Better With Cash Plus
If you still have new beans to sell, please check out our Cash Plus Contracts. We can add a premium to your new crop bean sales price in exchange for an offer to sell more new beans if November Bean futures close above a certain level on Oct 23rd. These contracts will allow you to sell new beans today with a 21 cent premium added to the new crop cash price in exchange for an offer to sell the same quantity of new crop bean futures around $9.55 if on Oct 23rd, the November bean futures close at or above this level. If futures close below this level, you get to keep this entire premium, and you don’t have any other obligation. So it is a win-win for you. You get to keep the 21 cent premium paid to you on top of the current new crop bean price, and if on Oct 23rd, depending on what November bean futures trade on the close on this date, you might be able to keep this entire premium free and clear. The worst case is that you would have the same bushel commitment in another new crop sale where November futures were locked in at the $9.55 level. Taking off the basis of 90 cents under the November futures for delivery into Readfield, which is our current posted new crop bean basis, you would have a new crop bean contract at 9.55 – 90 = $8.65 The worst case is that you would have another set of new beans sold at $8.65 for Oct / Nov ’19 delivery into Readfield or Center Valley. This is a decent price considering our posted new crop price is at $8.36 today. Please check this out. This is another excellent contract which puts more money in your pocket. Please click here to see our current cash grain bids.
What Are The Charts Telling Us?
Looking at the charts today, all grains made a fresh high
about a month ago. Since then, we have
been pulling back. Here are the support
and resistance levels for cash and new crop grains. These are all futures levels as traded at
Cash Corn – May 19 Corn Futures – Support at $3.61,
Resistance at $3.75, Place Targets at $3.70
New Corn – Dec 19 Corn Futures – Support at $3.86,
Resistance at $3.91, Place Targets at $3.91
New Wheat – July 19 Wheat Futures – Support at $4.36,
Resistance at $4.60, Place Targets at $4.55
To see where grain futures are currently trading, please click here.
Take Advantage Of Selling
Opportunities With Online Targets
Just prior or after the monthly USDA grain reports, volatility really ramps up in the grain markets. This causes the futures levels to move around much more than during the rest of the month. I encourage all of you who need to sell grain to use targets to take advantage of a pop in the market. It is simply amazing what these markets can do in a very short amount of time. There is simply no way we can communicate to all of you during a 15 minute rally that happens right during a crop report. That is why targets work so well. It allows you to have resting orders already in position at Chicago so when the market starts to gyrate, your orders get picked off and you can take advantage of a very nice pop in the market. Targets are a great tool to help you lock in better returns for your farming operation. You can call us and we can enter them for you, or you can do it all by yourself by entering them online through our Online Bid Center by clicking here.
CHS Larsen Co-op To Host Grain
On April 3rd and 4th, we will be hosting 3 Grain Marketing Meetings throughout our draw area. Meetings will be held in New London, Waupaca, and Larsen. Brian Rydlund from CHS Hedging will be joining us to go over the current S&D’s and also offer his recommendations for contracting and marketing. It will be a lively discussion on current grain topics. You are welcome to attend. For more information on the location, times, and how to RSVP, please click here.
As always, if I can help you with anything, please call me
at the grain office in New London at 419-279-3809 or send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
When most people think of agriculture, they wonder how we are going to feed the growing population of 9.6 billion by 2050. And while that’s an important question to consider, I find myself thinking more often about the individuals needed to fill the talent pipeline to feed that growing population.
With nearly 4 in 10 agriculture jobs going unfilled each
year and the average-age of farmers ever increasing, it’s going to take a
pragmatic, creative approach to encourage young people to pursue careers in
CHS has completed the acquisition of West Central Distribution, LLC, a full-service wholesale distributor of agronomy products headquartered in Willmar, Minnesota.
“Completing the acquisition of West Central demonstrates
our commitment to provide more of the products, services and technologies
cooperatives, retailers and our farmer-owners need to compete,” said Gary
Halvorson, senior vice president, CHS Agronomy. “Ownership of West Central
expands our agronomy platform, positions CHS as a leading supply partner to
cooperatives and retailers serving growers throughout the United States and
adds value for CHS owners.”
Cooperative is gathering donations of money and food to help fight hunger. As
part of CHS Harvest for Hunger food and fund drive, CHS Larsen Cooperative will
accept contributions from March 1 through March 20 at its locations in New
London, Readfield, Center Valley, Weyauwega, Larsen, and Oconto Falls; they
will then deliver all collections to the local food pantries.
“Hunger is a
reality for more than 40 million people in America, including 13.1 million
children. Every dollar we raise through CHS Harvest for Hunger can purchase six
pounds of food through our food banks,” says Todd Reif, general manager, CHS
Larsen Cooperative. “That’s making a real difference for those in need.”
donations are encouraged because they enable food banks to leverage their
buying power to provide nutritious food at deeply discounted rates. In 2018,
CHS Larsen Cooperative raised $2,600 and over 580 pounds of food. This all
stayed in the communities in which they reside.
communities also win when CHS Country Operations makes a contribution to help
friends and neighbors right here in our community. Fighting hunger in our communities’
ties directly to what farmers and ranchers do every day, raising crops and
livestock to feed the world,” adds Reif.
be made at CHS Larsen Cooperative’s locations in New London, Readfield, Center
Valley, Weyauwega, Larsen and Oconto Falls. If you would like to donate to this
cause but are unable to drop it off at one of our locations, please contact
Anne Moore at our main office 920-982-1111 and she will send someone out to
pick up the donation. Or you may mail a check to CHS Larsen Cooperative Attn:
Harvest for Hunger P.O. Box 308 New London WI, 54961 or call 920-982-1111 for
more information on how you can help.
Even after positive numbers on the report a few weeks ago, prices still do not seem to be positive. South America is running the bean market during harvest and corn seems to be piggy backing off bean trends, which do not help at all. Not to mention Chinese tariffs are not helping either. Setting targets at reasonable levels in the near future may be your best bet.
Our average price program enrollment has opened. The average price contract prices out an even number of bushels, at the close of every Wednesday. This happens for a 10 week period from May 1st to July 3rd. This program is a useful tool to use as a benchmark for your grain marketing, also it is free of charge. Click Here to learn more.
If you have questions or want to get some contracts in place
feel free to reach out to Mike
Steingraber and he would be happy to go over options with you.