Grain Market Update – July 10

7/10/19

The USDA To Release July Crop Report on Thursday

The USDA will be out with its July monthly crop report to be released on Thursday at 11 am.  After the June 28th acreage report, the market will likely take this report with a grain of salt.  The real challenge is and will continue to be being able to accurately predict the amount of actual planted acreage of both corn and beans.  Up to this point, the industry is grasping at straws to figure out what corn and bean acreage numbers actually are.  Most everyone agrees that the 91.7 M corn acres that the USDA released on June 28th are much too high, and the 80 M bean acres are much too low.  The numbers played havoc with the grain markets following the June 28th report.  My best guess is that the corn acres will be close to 89 M acres and beans at 82 M acres.  The USDA will be resurveying all of the producers in the Corn Belt states during the month of July, and then the August 12th USDA report will have the updated acreage numbers based on this resurvey.  Thus, on August 12th, we should have the first solid acreage data of the year.  The market will be trying to position itself ahead of this data release.

After months of wetness especially in the eastern Corn Belt, we have finally been receiving warmer temps and the excessive rain has finally moderated.  This has allowed the corn and bean crops to finally start to catch up in maturity, and the heat and less water has allowed aggressive and productive growth, finally.  The crop will still be late, but maybe with continued heat, as long as the rain still comes, we can close the gap somewhat before harvest.  Most of the corn has now had nitrogen applied and many corn acres are now aggressively growing with a deep green color.

There are major corn and bean acreage in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin that did not get planted.  Northwest Ohio, northern Indiana, central Michigan, and northeastern Wisconsin are the worst areas with the largest unplanted acreage.  Folks, this is serious.  There are thousands and thousands of unplanted acres in these areas.  I know as I have travelled through them all.  The major livestock producing areas in west central Ohio, northwestern Michigan, and east central Wisconsin are all in panic mode because they are unclear on how they will secure enough corn to feed their livestock for the next 14 months.  Basis on old crop corn in these areas have skyrocketed higher in Ohio and Michigan to +75 to +100 over at major feed destination locations.  Farmers who have old crop corn are not budging.  They can see that they have a commodity in demand, and they want to get as much as possible during this opportunity.  They also are unsure of their own production this year, so they do not want to sell to much and possibly leave more in the bin to hedge next year’s production.  All of this has caused old corn and new corn basis to rachet higher to severely higher the more east you travel.  CSX Columbus, Ohio corn trains traded today at +75 cents over the September futures today in the east.  This is the high-water mark so far this year.  The extreme strength in old crop corn will continue to support basis and will ultimately cause corn spreads to stay narrow, and likely keep new crop spreads more narrow than normal as well.

The other story today that is not getting much press is the continued efforts to get a new trade deal approved with China.  The US has been working diligently with China for the last 18 months to get a new deal developed, but nothing is concrete as of yet.  However, President Trump did meet with Chinese President Xi last week at the G20 meeting.  The US delegation continues to negotiate with China, but there is still work to be done.  This will be something to watch in the coming weeks.  Ultimately, we need to have a China bean export program for Oct / Nov out of the Gulf as well as the PNW.  My fear is that the weather problems has caused a much higher corn price that is killing our export demand.  South America has the cheapest corn and beans in the world, and China is buying their corn and beans instead of ours.  Long term, this is not good for the US.  Any time we destroy our demand base, it takes years to redevelop these relationships.

Targets Produce Success and Protection For Your Farm

Weather markets will push the market around like a yoyo and produce unprecedented volatility.  However, volatility can be your friend if you have a solid marketing plan and know how much and at what price you feel comfortable selling when the right opportunities present themselves.  If you are not working with one of our grain originators today, please give us a call.  We will gladly sit down with you to create a plan and help you protect your farm.  For a list of our grain originators and the one closest to you, please click here.  These types of volatile markets are a grain marketer’s dream.  The volatility present selling opportunities that are very short lived.  For the disciplined marketer, who knows exactly what commodity he needs to sell and at what level, this is a perfect scenario.  You simply place target orders in our system and at 3 am in the morning next Thursday while China makes an announcement when we are all sleeping, the markets ramps up, hits your target, locks in your contract price, all automatically while you are in bed.  How fantastic is that!  I encourage all of you to start using our online target system.  Its free, easy, and will protect your farm.  Please click here for more information.

New Arrive Delayed Price Rates have Been Reduced

We have reduced our Delayed Price rates for new arrive corn and beans into Readfield and Center Valley.  These rates are for new arrive bushels only, and the rate will be in effect until Oct 1, 2019 when new crop storage rates will go into effect.  The new Delayed Price rate is now FREE through Oct 1, 2019.

What Are The Charts Telling Us?

Here are the support and resistance levels for cash and new crop grains.  These are all futures levels as traded at Chicago:

Cash Corn – Sep 19 Corn Futures – Support at $4.13, Resistance at $4.45, Place Targets at $4.40

New Corn – Dec 19 Corn Futures – Support at $4.20, Resistance at $4.48, Place Targets at $4.45

Cash Beans – Aug 19 Bean Futures – Support at $8.71, Resistance at $9.03, Place Targets at $8.95

New Beans – Nov 19 Bean Futures – Support at $8.90, Resistance at $9.22, Place Targets at $9.15

New Wheat – Sep 19 Wheat Futures – Support at $4.98, Resistance at $5.19, Place Targets at $5.15

To see where grain futures are currently trading, please click here.

As always, if I can help you with anything, please call me at 419-279-3809 or send me an email at marcus.cordonnier@chsinc.com.

Marcus Cordonnier

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